The market has rallied nearly 333 points today on news of Citi's profitability during January and February 2009 as well as hints from Rep. Barney Frank about the re-institution of the uptick rule (though inherently an SEC decision).
Have we reached bottom? Certainly, from a qualitative perspective, there is optimism today among investors and experts that we may be nearing the end of falling stock prices; but data sets have yet to validate this hopefulness.
Unemployment numbers are going to the biggest indicators of slowing downside momentum. Today, United Technologies announced 11,600 layoffs and put out this statement: "The economic recovery previously anticipated in the second half of 2009 now appears unlikely."
With companies unable to forecast potential end-of-year earnings due to the market's lack of confidence and fragmentation of information, layoffs may continue to rise in coming month. Until we see consistent market rallies, today's gains may be easily sold during tomorrow's session. As CNBC's Matt Nesto put it, stocks hit-hard like Citi (C) need to gain 100% returns over several sessions before we see it trading at "normal" market levels.
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